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Evgeny A. Abramyan - Doctor of Engineering Sciences, Professor,
physicist, Winner of State Prize,
one of the founders
of several research directions in nuclear technology,
author of more than 100 inventions and several books on applied physics
|
"Seeking practical solutions
for problems of mankind” |
XXI century: problems and outlooks
Part 1. ALARM BELL
A sense of foreboding has arisen in human consciousness in various epochs and has been associated, first and foremost, with religious prophesies of the Apocalypse, devastating wars and natural disasters. Today the problem of preserving the civilization and confronting the Apocalypse comes into first place. The main reason for that is the appearance of a realistic threat of total extermination of life on Earth by means of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. The nuclear states club continues to acquire new members. The expansion of war scales, as well as scientific researches lead to robust search for new military capacities of nanotechnology, gene engineering and robotics which may, in the long term, result in creation of new means of destruction and their carriers. Efforts are made in the direction of using near-the-earth space for military purposes. Local conflicts remain and the amounts of conventional weapons produced and sold increase. Aside from military-associated dangers the increasing level of industry activities and the growth of population result in accelerating exhaustion of the planet’s resources. We already experience lack of some of those resources, while much more may be exhausted during the life of the following generations. Studies and publications concerning those problems first emerged during the second half of the XX century. Movies and TV programs have made a good deal demonstrating different scenarios of extermination of mankind. Many organizations and active groups emerged “fighting for peace” – the Club of Rome, the Pugwash Humanist movement; there are tens of antimilitary and pacifist organizations, institutes and groups. UNO, UNESCO and numerous organizations consider the necessity to change the planet’s way of living. It becomes evident that it is essential for the public at large and state leaders in particular to understand that the present epoch is drastically different from all previous history ant that without changes to the way of living, means of resolving conflicts and management of the planet’s resources being implemented, humanity faces a tangible risk of degradation and destruction. The creation of a storage facility for seed grains in case of disaster (“doomsday”) at the Spitsbergen Island may be considered as a minor consolation in the scope of the above mentioned. However, regardless of the increasingly unpleasant situation and pessimistic outlook, the people’s way of living remains almost the same – contamination of the atmosphere and water continues, as well as – in many countries – abundant exhaustion of resources. The discrepancy between the current situation and the idea of confronting the arising dangers had been discussed during international forums, held by the UNO – two conferences on sustainable development – in Rio-de-Janeiro in 1992 and in Johannesburg in 2002 (“Rio” and “Rio+10”). They acquired leaders of over 100 countries. The first conference was visited by representatives from 179 countries, 1600 non-governmental organizations and 29000 participants. The “Rio+10” conference gathered 22000 participants, including 10000 delegates, 8000 representatives from non-governmental organizations and the public society and 4000 mass-media workers. Both forums emphasized the "responsibility of the UN for our planet, whose generosity is the fundamental source of our progress: moreover, responsibility for the future security and well-being of the generations to come… We invited leaders of all countries to come here to reiterate their devotion to sustainable development, protection of the planet and maintenance of the necessary balance so that they would go home and take appropriate steps" (former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan). Following the first conference, the UN adopted the Agenda for the 21st Century in 1993. Here are some of its clauses: - protection of the atmosphere; - complex approach to the planning and rational use of land; - protection of oceans, seas, and their bioresources; - safe and economically expedient disposal of radioactive wastes; - promotion of science in the name of sustainable development; - assistance in enlightenment, informing the population, and personnel training; and - advancement of national mechanisms and international cooperation for the purpose of establishment of potential in the developing countries. Annan echoed this: "We have approached a decisive turning point in history… New and various threats have taken shape. We have to take another look at the mechanism of international relations: whether or not it is up to these new challenges? And what changes should be introduced if it is not? The world of crying inequity where millions are subject to oppression and live in extreme poverty will never become a truly safe world for even the privileged citizens" (December 2003). It is obvious that regardless the relevance of the problem of the civilization’s survival the rapidness and efficiency of the decisions made does not coincide with the significance of the problem. The fact that the time passed between “Rio” and “Rio+10” made up to 10 years speaks for itself. "The achievements of the Johannesburg summit cannot be appraised as a total failure, but neither has the summit brought about the consequential conceptual or political achievements very many had counted on" (Bailes, SIPRI, 2003) The UN convened a special session of the General Assembly, Rio+5, in 1997, where it confessed to being "greatly upset because the general trend in the sphere of sustainable development is worse than it was before 1992": "We are not dealing as much with regress as we are with despondency, with the lack of political will necessary for radical changes" (Razali Ismail, president of the UN General Assembly). Academician Nikita Moiseyev made the following assessment of the conference. "It is far too late… It failed to live up to scientists' expectations or rise to a sufficiently high level," Moiseyev said: "It never summoned the courage necessary to face the truth; politicians' thinking turned out to be shackled by clichés. Combination of spontaneous capacities of the Market and Collective Mind is the solution. We ought to reach the level of society where people think and act together." Looking at the achievements of the human species, at the mass of people, it is very hard to believe that all of it might vanish; it is not easy to imagine that such catastrophes may happen in our world. Besides, who wants to think about the bad and waste one's health on discussing scenarios of doom? Our psyches are already overloaded with constant information about the current mess – accidents, crimes, military conflicts, natural disasters, etc. They absorb our attention and increase our emotional tension. According to statistics, a significant part of the population is barely able to cope with this and is too physically and mentally tired to think about global issues. Unconsciously, the hope always exists that everything will be all right and that oneself and one's relatives will be safe. We have developed a defensive reaction that helps us keep spirit. "For many people in the contemporary world, especially in the poor countries … the threat of becoming a target of WMD seems to be relatively remote in comparison with the permanent dangers caused by extreme poverty and hunger, polluted water, and epidemics and infectious diseases," as Kofi Annan observed. To be able to pass through the corridor between undesirable styles of behavior, the danger must be assessed correctly to the extent needed to be able to undertake steps to protect oneself, which in this context means to conserve nature for future generations, avoid military conflicts, find acceptable ways to control growth of the global population, and control excessive consumerism. To achieve this we will have to refuse to use many things that we become accustomed to, incur great expenses, and work hard and long. As with individuals and groups of people, the behavior of the global community on the threshold of the upcoming challenges will determine what impact they make on our future. In the times of the Cold War, there were many reports on research on how to psychologically mobilize a healthy fear to galvanize people into action and act effectively to prevent the realistic danger of war. It is known that, while making a decision, a person uses logic only in part, as a great role is played by the subconscious and subliminal motives – instincts, emotions, the examples of others, and associations. However, the main thing that is required of a contemporary person is to move forward in the development of his intellect and increase the share of pragmatism, consideration, and logic in his activities related to the future. The situation altogether is aggravated by the unawareness of the outlook on the civilization’s development from the behalf of the majority of people, by their inability and unwillingness to understand it and, therefore, to make efforts and spend resources for means of confrontation; in particular this refers to those wielding the power and making decisions. Unpleasant prognoses are often overlooked, substantiated that “it is too bad to be true”. (Eventually, the goal is for the claims and studies performed during the last decades by hundreds and even thousands of specialists to be noticed and accepted). For such a complex system as civilization, no technique for making forecasts exists. Just a little is known: for example, several scenarios of future development may exist during periods of instability (see above for a discussion of chaos theory), so the task is to identify and implement the best ones. Several potential areas for future development are presented in the figure below in simplified form. It is apparent that one of the acceptable scenarios is, as an example, sustainable development. The matter depends on something very small – to assess the variants of such a life and, most importantly, find ways to avoid global catastrophe. Attempts to consider variants of such actions were made in the second part of this essay. As far as the psychological characteristics of forecasting are concerned, other aspects exist as well: on the one hand, a belief in a bad outcome can make its occurrence more probable, as a prediction has sometimes an imperative power. This is called a self-fulfilling prophesy. On the other hand, a belief in a favorable outcome and in one's capacities makes coping with obstacles easier. In other words, a bad forecast can cause panic and result in an unfavorable outcome; however, exactly the same forecast can mobilize us to cope with obstacles. Ultimately the problem of maintaining the civilization demands accommodation to the “principle of reality”, which assumes limitation of instincts, which do not coincide with given abilities. Politicians also prefer to study issues that will be of interest for their electorate (at least that part of the electorate that watches how events develop) or an influential lobby The fact that tolerance and peacefulness constitute basic properties of the psyche and mindset necessary to survive has been known for a long time, and these principles are used in all major religions. However, our history is more like a kaleidoscope of deviations from these principles than it is one of them being followed. Today, the human civilization has entered the epoch where such deviations are no longer allowable. Futurist VladimirTsaplin wrote that "Nationalist and religious forms of preschool and school education and education should be put an end to as systems that cripple the mind and revives the psychology of antagonistic tribes, hordes, and packs…". The survival of mankind as a species today depends on how successful people are in abandoning their old mentality and on in its transformation to make it adequate to the situation developing in the world.
While the precedent generations were raised to retain the integrity of their state, ethnic or any other societies, today the main target is to save mankind. For future generation the word origin will most probably be assigned to the planet in whole instead of a country or nation'[1]. This may be achieved by means of a global educational system and by changing the focus of mass media. The current level of civilization – i.e. scientific and technical progress – makes survival of some population groups difficult in case of natural disasters. Mankind can only be retained as whole. Only an education and a whole new way of living, which would lead to drastic changes throughout the World, may bring us to a stable life. Part 2. WHAT CAN BE DONE?
Various concepts of providing a stable and sustainable existence of the civilization exist. Hereinafter, we will ponder a variant of modernization split into five global programs or projects centered on mindset, disarmament, technology, economics, and geopolitics[2]. Their organization may draw on the experience of the successful national and international projects of the recent past – the Manhattan Project, the Soviet nuclear and rocket programs, the Apollo lunar program, and the decoding of the human genome. These programs owe their success to gifted specialists, sound basic assumptions, proper organization, and corresponding financing[3]. These projects also do not represent all the experience available to be drawn upon. There is also the European Union, an alliance of peace made by the majority of European countries, which constitutes a truly unique experience of political and socioeconomic reform. These programs and events have had a radical effect on the world. It does not really matter (for the purposes of this chapter) that most of the above-mentioned programs were essentially military. That is to be expected of mankind: the greatest advances and discoveries are made in pursuit of military objectives. It is necessary to display the same adroitness in peaceful matters, in the organization of projects to preserve civilization of gargantuan scope and complexity. The global crisis we see developing in our era does not have analogs in history, and getting out of it seems to require ascending to a higher level of the scope, complexity, and time span of the projects to be undertaken. Much will be required. The services of the best specialists in their respective fields will have to be enlisted, young talents spotted and nurtured, actions planned in detail, projects as such divided into phases, means invented to introduce the necessary corrections as the projects proceed along the charted paths, and other organizational steps taken. It should noted that problems of consciousness, morality and patterns of human behavior are substantively issued in UNESCO studies and documents. These problems are indeed of primary importance for changing the World and saving mankind. However addressed along with these problems should be a number of other tasks described below. The content of the programs discussed below corresponds to our current knowledge and understanding of the problems facing us. Both will change and improve as the years pass. All the programs are interrelated and mutually complementary. They encompass a spectrum of questions, more or less, that have been debated over since the previous century. The funds required will amount to trillions of dollars, but several potential sources may already be listed: – reduction and eventual suspension of arms expenditures and what is spent on maintenance of standing armies; – reserves and surplus fortunes of the wealthiest states, corporations, and charity funds; – education and advanced training of the population of the developing countries; – growth of average labor productivity throughout the world caused by scientific and technological advance, the broad use of robots, and computerization of industry; – transition to less consumption in the wealthy countries; and – development of extraterrestrial resources. Project Consciousness The main features of consciousness[4], that manifest themselves in traditions, ways of life, modes of behavior, and morality have evolved in the long struggle for survival shaped by the environment, the need to serve physiological needs, and the basic instincts. The changing conditions of life necessitated transformation of consciousness. Whoever had the best-adapted mindset, capable of rising up to the situation, won out and survived. (It was the strongest, the cleverest, the better organized, and frequently the most aggressive who stood a better chance of survival.) In recent history, however, the rapid and ever-increasing pace of changes spanning many spheres of life has left the transformation of consciousness far behind and unable to work out new and necessary traits at a more or less correspondingstyle='mso-spacerun:yes' rate. Consciousness lacks the time it needs to mold itself to the new circumstances, to provide a kind of anchor in the fluently changing world, and this lag becomes a threat to mankind's very existence[5]. One of the millions of species, the species that views itself as the prime intelligence on Earth behaves in a manner that – in the long run – collides with its own interests, Philosopher Peter Russell comes to conclude. Evolution of consciousness and changes in man's inner world, he went on to say, are needed so as to correspond to the fantastic achievements in the sphere of material development. The list of traits and instincts that interfere with our existence and generate dangers is easy to compile: it includes aggressiveness, belligerence (the inability or unwillingness to stop, regardless of a looming conflict), cruelty, bigotry, desire for unrestricted consumption, barbaric treatment of the environment, and disinclination to contemplate potentially dangerous consequences of our present-day actions. The list of our vices also includes a penchant for criminal propensity and a willingness to succumb to the temptations offered by drugs, alcohol, gambling, and so on. In other words, consciousness and the inner life should be rearranged with an emphasis on the following virtues: tolerance, reasonable consumption, environmental friendliness, high level of morality, peaceful solutions to problems that arise. While in the past education of new generations was targeted primarily to serve the task of ensuring existence of certain states, ethnic or social communities, today the task of ensuring the survival of mankind as a whole is coming to the foreground[6]. This can be achieved only through an appropriate system of global education and a different media policy. Mankind can survive only as an integral whole. It is crucial to provide appropriate education beginning from the earliest age possible[7]. Educational globalization should follow economic. The wealthy countries should be persuaded to raise money and install classrooms equipped with television sets and Internet-connected computer terminals in all odd corners of the world (television set and computer will probably be a single unit soon) in order to broadcast educational programs and lessons in the language of the natives. Teachers should be sent there from abroad or locally trained. Targeted educational broadcasts will then need to be organized, and it will be necessary to use all available methods of influencing consciousness and install and support progressive concepts. The existing teaching aids, which are thoroughly prejudiced more often than not, should be abandoned in favor of specially written textbooks published in all languages on history, the world order, the principal laws of the society of the future, and whatever else is needed to build this society. It is up to psychologists, sociologists, pedagogues, writers, and public-relations specialists to chart the curricula and phases of installation of the new planetary mindset. "The general level of society's education is a major prop for democratic institutions[8]. Lacking sufficient education, people cannot follow democratic debates or participate in them," as Francis Fukuyama observed. Also, "we need a new turn in our policy in the sphere of education and communications. We need to elaborate worldwide programs based on the assumption that the survival of mankind is inseparable from the development of a creative and compassionate planetary consciousness," as Dr. Karan Singh, a Hindu spiritual leader, once said. "Ideas are imbued into public consciousness by means of systematic ideological and propagandistic activities the basic techniques of which are emotional influence, neuroinduction, simplification of ideas and their combination with populist desires," Russian philosopher Vyacheslav Stepin argued. Concluding this section, let's sum up what is the essence of Project I. Consciousness: Transformation of consciousness and mindset, modification of patterns of behavior established historically but no longer acceptable in the world as it is. Global (or at least applied to a larger portion of the population) upbringing, propaganda, and education aiming to inculcate tolerance, peacefulness, and equal rights; to obviate aggressiveness, ethnic, and religious hatred; and to restrict consumption and procreation. From the current forum resolution project: “Humans continue to be divided not only in terms of gender as well as racial, national, religious and other criteria but above all into: rich and pure, educated and uneducated, well and ill brought up, moral and immoral, which are exponents of humane and inhumane attitudes.” “Those who having the healthy mental reflection are mostly concerned by the above, fathom and understand current dangers to Life and threats to the existence of Humanity itself, appeal to ALL people on the planet individually as well as collectively - to realize all these goals in full and to take adequate measures before it is too late on all levels of their status rank, position and civil activity for maximum consolidation of Mankind to stabilize the situation on Earth and to prevent its further deterioration in order to avoid fatal consequences both for the present and for future generations”. Project Disarmament The desire to be well-armed arose at the dawn of human evolution – to be able to hunt and defend oneself or, not infrequently, to raid neighbors. Even today, the maintenance of a battle-ready army and arsenals that are as sophisticated as national resources permit remains one of the prime objectives for many countries. The population and the international community are reassured again and again that this is done for the purposes of self-defense, but militarization itself enhances the risk of conflicts. Looking back, it is easy to see how ridiculous the Cold War, however much it held the world on the verge of disaster. It was believed that the Cold War was rooted in ideological contradictions, specifically different understandings of what economic and social order could provide a better quality of life and more freedom and opportunities for people to develop their natural endowments. However, in reality it looks more like a battle for superiority, for the power of certain groups and countries to rule others. Today we witness a rise in understanding that the authority, or position of a country, the wellbeing of its citizens is defined by its economical and social achievements, position of latest civil technologies and the culture level, rather than by its military power. The processes of globalization, increasing transparency of boarders and freedom of movement do not coincide with military confrontation and, especially, with armed conflicts. A number of countries, heavily lacking natural resources, have demonstrated the possibility of raising the level of life to the first place worldwide solely by means of establishing strong economics and appropriate politics, as well as a new mentality. Mankind has been seeking a means of peaceful settlement of conflicts for more than 85 years, ever since before the League of Nations, and the time has come for it to finally do so. From this point on, development must not be a path of armed clashes of ever-increasing intensity. Following the Cold War a number of international acts assumed reduction of armies, weapon supplies and, at the first time – military budgets of the major states. Although wide public and international organization focus primarily on nuclear and conventional disarmament, other types of mass destruction weapons – such as chemical and biological weapons – also constitute a great threat. The destruction of some types of such weapons necessitates specialized plants and long time[9]. Control and suppression mechanisms will remain necessary for as long as groups and states exist that may deliver a strike. The overall strength of armies and production of weapons in the meantime should be brought down from their current levels. Mankind should set itself the task of abolishing all the world's armies over the next 20-30 (or perhaps 30-50) years and leave police forces only. Controlling the new technologies which are gaining momentum today (genetic engineering, robotics, and nanotechnology) will be difficult as well. Unlike nuclear, biological and chemical weapons which were from the very start developed in restricted-access state-controlled laboratories for military purposes, many of the present-day cutting edge research are being performed by privately-owned companies in pursuit of profit. The existing policy in technological secrecy protection seriously complicates placing such research under control. Unlike nuclear testing control which is easy due to seismic tremors and radiation emissions, control of lab research in the fields listed above requires special checkups similar to those used for bacteriological weapons control, but on a bigger scale. Experts say, research in these directions may reach a dangerous threshold in 20-30 years, but already today the issue requires international attention as no less important than measures of containing existing weapons. In summing up, Project II Disarmament[10] is: Gradual disarmament with the ultimate goal of abolition of national armies and setting up anstyle='mso-spacerun:yes' international police force for maintaining safety and security. An end to development and production of conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. International control over new scientific breakthroughs. Project Technology With the scientific and technological accomplishments of the last several centuries, mankind could provide decent living standards for all (meaning 7 billion people, this being the latest estimate of the global population) in terms of subsistence, comfort regardless of climatic conditions, and communications. Taking into concern the pressure, exerted by the situation described earlier, it is obvious that the focus of scientific studies should be revised. First of all this implies economic, social, psychological and political studies – humanitarian and social science and technologies. Priority, or at least a much bigger attention, should be attached to technologies of transformation of consciousness, implantation of new principles and modes of behavior, technologies of propaganda. Discoveries are potentially possible in the humanitarian area, such as more efficient government systems, approaches to education for the younger generations, ways of propagating a different way of life, new methods of conflict resolving. The opinion even exists that "the 21st century will be a century of human sciences – or it won't be at all" (the French sociologist Claude Levi-Strauss). Prof. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, for his part, maintained that: "We will never live to see the end of the 21st century without science. Science in working partnership with all other forms of public consciousness will have to tackle the global problems of modernity of unprecedented complexity, beginning with demographic, ecological, and energy ones and ending with scientific substantiation of the humanization of the mankind's transition to a qualitatively different state." Mankind should redouble its efforts to perfect energy-saving, material-economic, and non-waste technologies. They are needed to prevent harm to the soil, subsurface resources, bodies of water, the atmosphere and near space. Activities should be performed in means of propagating advanced technologies in other countries. Studies of whatever natural phenomena may pose a danger (asteroids, cosmic radiation, geological disasters, and new disease agents) belong in the same category. Space exploration technologies should move to a more important position in mankind's research and plans. Mankind is on the threshold of an advance into outer space on a major scale. It is about to start tapping practically unlimited resources of energy and practically all the elements of Mendeleyev Periodic Table. The establishment of bases on the Moon and orbital production plants and settlements will soon become a reality. No insurmountable limitations have revealed themselves in this sphere over the 50 years of space exploration. The major problem today lies in finding cheaper ways of overcoming the force of gravity. A recent breakthrough in launch techniques brings implementation of exploration plans up a bit: modified airplanes are being used for the initial acceleration of spacecraft. Once the first extraterrestrial production plants are built (on the Moon, asteroids, or artificial satellites), equipment for and parts of future space objects may be built there. Progress will therefore shed its dependence on solving the problem of negotiating gravity. Robot-controlled or manned by skeleton crews, these plants will be able to produce whatever is needed for construction of space settlements, industries and means of subsistence. Just imagine what may be accomplished in this very century provided the army of specialists and factories currently deployed in military programs joins the outer space exploration effort. The following kinds of technologies will determine our future: – Humanitarian technology that regulates and transforms our consciousness, behavior, and mindset (methods of upbringing, propaganda, and so on) technology that defines political and social makeup of society. – Technology of subsistence production; information facilities, and artificial intelligence. – Environmental-protection technology. – Space-exploration technology: the establishment of a production base and use of extraterrestrial resources. – Intense study of nature. Project Technology: Development of humanitarian technologies providing for transformation of the mindset and consciousness in accordance with Project I. Development of technologies that will ensure high living standards and environmental protection. Establishment of extraterrestrial industrial facilities. Project Economics Several countries with various backgrounds, some of them devastated by war, successfully reformed their national economies in the second half of the 20th century. Almost a dozen countries changed their mindsets, performed an "economic miracle," and reached impressive living standards (see Chapter 8). What they accomplished should be repeated by the developing countries today (with the specifics taken into account, of course), with financial and organizational assistance from the advanced countries. Everything depends on a determined and skillful effort of all involved parties (the helpers and the helped) and on their readiness to finance the transformation programs. The reduction of the military industry and the availability of means, jobs, and specialists in the advanced countries create favorable conditions for refocusing efforts on the projects we are discussing. "Everyone needs economic growth, but nobody wants changes," the American economist Paul Romer said. National leaders commanding respect with their peoples will play a major (or even decisive) part in this undertaking. "Some countries have leaders who use their time in office to try to drive modernization rather than personally enrich themselves. And some countries simply have venal elites, who use their time in office to line their pockets and then invest those riches in Swiss real estate" (Thomas Friedman, The World Is Flat, 2005). By all appearances, the achieved efficiency in production of the main means of living is quite sufficient to provide everyone with food, clothes and homes; one person working at a cutting-edge-technology plant produces goods for hundreds and thousands of people. So the problem is in propagating the achieved technologies and knowledge throughout the planet together with ceasing non-production expenses – such as weapons and armed confrontations – as well as minimizing (ideally – to eliminate) criminality, which always results in losses. The gist of Project Economics is: Improving the economies of the developing countries: introduction of latest technologies, training personnel, and rendering material assistance; establishment of fair and stable social systems. Elimination of the gap in living standards, regulation of economy on a global scale to prevent global economic crisis from occurring. Project Geopolitics The structure of the interrelation between the communities making up the world is one of the essential factors that determine the life of mankind. Civilization began with settlements and states with the population running into first thousands and then millions. The rise and fall of countries and empires were accompanied by wars and, not infrequently, ethnic hatred. There are over 225 countries in the world today, concerned with preservation of their territorial integrity and sovereignty and sometimes entertaining expansionary ideas. Some wholly new phenomena have appeared in the world in recent decades. Structures born of globalization (economic, industrial, information, and otherwise; see Article 9) are superimposed on the existing network of state formations The notion of state is transforming and losing a great deal of its previous connotations. A significant event to this extent is the large-scale progressive reformation, which took place in Western Europe following the Second World War, the creation of a state-of-art public institution – the European Union – an alliance of many countries, tens of nationalities. This Union gathered together countries that have waged devastating wars with each-other (the number of victims reaching millions of lifes) and had now eliminated boarders and visas, created a single parliament and other governmental systems. The ne arly genetic animosity between Germans and French, Poles and Germans, Lithuanians and Poles, and others has been overcome. Armies had been disbanded, as former boarders no longer existed, all associated expenses were ceased and, thereafter, the confrontation and possibility of armed conflicts eliminated. No army – no threat of attack, which means no need for militarist propaganda; no prerequisites for potential conflicts – which are so typical in our World. The EU example should become a role model for the whole World, for all nations, still confronting with each-other. It is likely that creation of other similar conglomerates may take place in this century (and it could be achieved much easier and faster should the above described projects be implemented). All the changes – to consciousness, level of education, economics, social systems, boarder regimen, as well as disarmament and elimination of armies – should be carried out in parallel (simultaneously). The target is to make more definite use of the EU’s experience and create similar unions in other regions. Furthermore - it is necessary to find ways for large alliances to cooperate. Ideally, mankind should strive for establishment of a world community where armed forces and clashes will be as much a chimera as wars between EU members are today. There are no other humane alternatives that ensure the survival of civilization. Drawing on the League of Nations and UN experience, the worldwide community should finally establish effective international organizations (world government?) adequate to reality. The new world community should be a perfect civil society in which every citizen will understand the necessity of democratic procedures and laws and do what is necessary to uphold them. What would the World look like, if such uniting trends were to hold up for some decades? It is sufficient to recall how the national consciousness in Germany and Japan – former militaristic states – had changed during the first 5-10 years following 1945, and during the next decades – in some other countries. Positive, uniting tendencies should be supported (if necessary – forced), while negative (aggressive and military) tendencies must be ceased before the reach a state, when control is impossible. Project Geopolitics can be summarized as follows: Unification of states (along the lines of the European Union), abolition of borders and standing armies, establishment a world community with a common world government) – in other words, a political, perhaps even social, globalization. Conclusion As it was stated above, a qualitatively new model for development of civilization is needed – globally managed development of society and nature instead of an unconstrained spontaneous movement ("manual control," in technical vocabulary). Some processes should be slowed down or put on hold and others stimulated, accelerated, and refocused on new objectives when needed. First and foremost, this concerns science, education, and many other social, economic, and cultural processes. Let us recall, that the projects’ summary is given as briefly as possible; further planning of these projects requires diligent work of specialists[11]. The development of our civilization, which is at the moment inertial and accelerating, may be put to rights and altered (if we decide to do so) only over a rather long time period – probably tens of years. That would further require constant efforts for maintaining peace on the planet. Talented young people should be educated and trained to participate in realization of the projects, as it was done, for example in the previous century in the best universities of leading states, when survival of confronting states was dependent on scientific and technological progress (MPTI, MIT[12] etc.). The most feasible steps at the moment are a large-scale propaganda campaign and training of enthusiasts with an understanding of the problem and willingness to act. “During such transition people will confront the opposition – those who exist and prosper due to violence. That includes individuals gaining economical, political or psychological benefits from the culture of killing” (American political analyst, prof. Glenn D. Paige). “One of the difficulties in development and propagation of a new consciousness consist in an inevitable confrontation with the dominating ideology” (prof. Ervin Laszlo). Essentially, the goal is achievable; intelligence is likely to takeover apathy, tyranny and incomprehension. In conclusion, let us recall that regardless the projects including almost everything that should be done, the most essential project will be the need to transform consciousness, to overcome many accepted dogmas and habits, and to renounce the myths that guide our life to a large extent. Having achieved some much, should our civilization withstand the arising difficulties, it may be looking forward to a brilliant future: every person will have the possibility to do something that he likes and finds interesting, to be free and healthy, and to lengthen his or her productive life. The progress of our knowledge has already resulted in doubling the duration of life over the last 150 years and making it as much as four time longer compared to primitive man (only in advanced countries though). After the 50 years of the cosmic era a few more steps should be taken to access limitless resources of near space, build industrial plants and maybe even comfortable accommodation there. This would resolve problems concerning the environment and depletion of Earth's resources. Thus, those are 5 actions (parallel steps) shortly, which Humanity should start to do in order to solve efficiently its problems: I. Consciousness Transformation of consciousness and mindset, modification of patterns of behavior established historically but no longer acceptable in the world as it is. Global (or at least applied to a larger portion of the population) upbringing, propaganda, and education aiming to inculcate tolerance, peacefulness, and equal rights; to obviate aggressiveness, ethnic, and religious hatred; and to restrict consumption and procreation. 2. Disarmament Gradual disarmament with the ultimate goal of abolition of national armies and setting up an style="mso-spacerun: yes"> international police force for maintaining safety and security. An end to development and production of conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. International control over new scientific breakthroughs. 3. Technology Development of humanitarian technologies providing for transformation of the mindset and consciousness in accordance with Project I. Development of technologies that will ensure high living standards and environmental protection. Establishment of extraterrestrial industrial facilities. 4. Economics Improving the economies of the developing countries: introduction of latest technologies, training personnel, and rendering material assistance; establishment of fair and stable social systems. Elimination of the gap in living standards, regulation of economy on a global scale to prevent global economic crisis from occurring. 5. Geopolitics Unification of states (along the lines of the European Union), abolition of borders and standing armies, establishment a world community with a common world government) – in other words, a political, perhaps even social, globalization.
Find more detailed information concerning these problems at - http://www.savefuture.net/files/2009edition-en.pdf ________________________________________ [1] Obviously this doesn’t implement that people would lose sympathy to places where they were born, raised up and where their friends and relatives live. [2] First published by the author in 2000 in a weekly newspaper Arguments and facts. [3] The Soviet nuclear program, for example, was launched in a devastated country that had lost millions of lives in the worst war in history. It took the Soviet Union several years to set up an unprecedented industry that comprised hundreds of enterprises with previously unknown technologies, to build dozens of cities and to train personnel from technicians to scientists. Hundreds of thousands were mobilized and set to work on what certainly constituted an unusual task. The Soviet Union became the leader in the level and scope of projects in a matter of years. If that is not an example of an ability to rise up to a grandiose and unusual intellectual and organizational challenge, then I do not know what is. [4] The notion of "human traits" is also used to convey what is termed "consciousness" or "mindset". It was Peccei who validated the necessity of radical changes in "human traits". [5] "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them," Albert Einstein said. Hence, the principal objective is to abandon the old mindset and march ahead. [6] At the risk of attracting sharp criticism by those to who the word "cosmopolitanism" is a curse, I must say that it is becoming increasingly obvious that cosmopolitanism – which, as introduced by ancient philosophers, meant citizenship of the world – is something we will need for survival. "The division of the world into countries is nothing but a social conventionality... Regardless of the people's feelings and their perception of homeland as something sacred, the truth is that countries are only artificial and temporary structures... In the next hundred years the notion of national belonging will become rudimentary, and all nations and states will recognize a common, global authority. By the end of the 21st century the notion of 'world citizenship' will acquire its proper meaning" (U.S. politician Strobe Talbot, 1992) [7] The necessity of radical changes to the educational system in order to alter public consciousness emerged long ago. A socialist-utopianist P Owen established schools for his employee’s children in England in the beginning of the XIX century. He established a “New institute for character education”. The institution consisted of a nursery, kinder garden for children of up to 6 years old, a primary school and an evening school for working teens, as well as consultations and lections for adults. The education was based on exact science and was free from religion. Despite the support from a number of reputed scientists and teachers, this Owen’s reformation along with many others was soon dismissed. Probably, the time was not yet right for such radical changes and the number of people involved in these reformation was not large enough. [8] Unlike it was in the primitive (and in certain contemporary) societies where authorities were interested in keeping their people ignorant. [9] The possible time of destruction of Russian and USA chemical weapon supplies according to different estimates varies from 2015-2020. USA assumes such disarmament to cost $30 billion. [10] In discussing this part of the book with specialists, the author heard the opinion that radical disarmament on a global scale is a fantastic idea that cannot be realized. Indeed, this disarmament is only possible simultaneously with or in the wake of a change in the global mindset and frameworks of interrelations. In other words, it is possible provided the programs suggested in this book (and analogous programs) are implemented. Otherwise, mankind must come up with other ways and means of saving itself. The author assumes that the trends and laws of development are leading mankind to catastrophe. The purpose of this book therefore is suggesting that the general public give a serious thought to what is happening and to the possible variants of the future (say, the next 30-50 years). [11] Sustainable development projects have been proposed by many thinkers who address the problems facing our civilization and its future. For instance, Ervin Laszlo lists the following goals and imperatives of our time: – Think globally, act responsibly; – Create a new culture of entrepreneurship; – Bring the understanding of mankind's pressing problems on the part of political leaders to a higher level; – Respect the moral code of environmental protection and preservation; – Create a culture of coexistence; and – Develop our individual and collective consciousness. [12] Moscow Physicotechnical Institute and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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