Background

Human evolution and laws of social development are among the most important topics of modern science. We have a general understanding of how plants and living organisms had developed on our planet over the period of 4 billion years until the modern time when the humans dominate the living world. With the evolution of Homo sapiens and their consciousness their social behavior had also changed: From small groups almost identical to animal packs they developed to form states, then empires, and, quite recently, a voluntary union of many countries – the EU. The epoch of kingdoms, sultanates and monarchies marked a shift from primeval democracy to the totalitarian form of rule where monarchs had unlimited power while people had no choice but to be humbly and irrevocably obedient. Such totalitarian states were prevalent for many thousand years. They were stable, they managed to keep their territories and even to wage victorious wars, conquering and robbing their neighbors. The bellicose and tough mindset forged by the struggle for survival and natural selection in the course of evolution had manifested itself in both domestic and foreign policies of early states.

The many thousand years long ancient epochs had seen only a few exceptions from totalitarian, despotic regimes, including Athens democracy (6^th century BC), Novgorod Veche (12-14 century AD), Pskov Veche and several other examples. At the same time, there had been a number of empires, some of which embraced dozens of countries, in human history. Radical changes that began to occur in the second millennium, first of all in Europe, were largely the result of a new phase of cultural development and scientific-technical progress. Universities appeared in several European cities in the 11^th-12^th century, and in the 14^th century a philosophy school and other schools appeared in Italy to lay the foundation for a new direction of cultural development. Then there comes the Renaissance phenomenon of the 15^th-16^th century which denied all earlier ethical and esthetical paradigms. The new atmosphere of humanistic creativity allowed rising beyond the clerical canons and scholastics and entered first the minds of the educated class and then the broader masses catalyzing changes in social order.

Changes in political and social systems kept pace with the progress of science and technology, the appearance of new machines, tools, ships, etc. Transition to the next phase that of a technogenic, industrial society, was marked first of all by the development of the institute of private property, money and goods market relationship and trade. The development of crafts strongly affected social status of many urban residents in that time; cities were often subdivided into 'trade zones.' Other significant phases of social development were marked by the appearance of firearms and cannons, steam engines, written language, printing… More and more people became literate.

The great geographical discoveries also catalyzed changes in economy and consciousness. Europeans occupied vast territories in Africa, Asia, America, Australia and New Zealand, and established colonies which were exploited for many centuries to come. During that time, Russia expanded into the Central Asia and Caucasus, northward to the Arctic coast and eastward to the Pacific coast. Russia seized some territories south of Siberia too. For some time in the 20^th century Russia occupied one-sixth of the planet's land area [1]. Russia competed with the British Empire which back then managed to subdue countries with huge populations to a total of around a quarter of the world population. As they used to say in those times: "The sun never sets on the British Empire."

Society which was born in Europe a few centuries ago was fundamentally different from all its predecessors. Revolutionary changes engulfed all facets of life, including economy, politics, social system, technology, culture, mindset, ideology and natural science. Important feature of society that laid the basis for modern society is active search for innovative technologies and their application. Labor and capital markets had appeared and labor power became merchandise. The Dutch, French and British revolutions eliminated or drastically limited monarchical powers and established democratic forms of rule. To a certain extent it is possible to say that freedom of person came to replace humble obedience to rulers. More freedoms combined with technical progress and increase in labor efficiency resulted in a considerable increase in the quality of life. Average life expectancy increased 100% in developed countries over the last 150 years and consumption increased manifold; the gap in the quality and way of life and culture between the developed world and the many backward countries (primarily those located in Africa and Asia) has grown dramatically and continues to widen.

Particularly active development of science and technology accompanied by the introduction of innovative ideas in the civilian and military spheres had occurred in the 20^th century. Human civilization developed largely by way of exploiting the planet's natural resources, and, therefore, increased consumption always meant increased environmental impact. Industrial emissions, pollution of water bodies, dam construction, altering river beds, deforestation, nuclear explosions, rocket launches, extermination of animal species… "Those chaotic activities which are called development of civilization reveal no strategy but aspiration for growth in all directions," Professor Kim Losev wrote.

The growth of population and industrial activities are prompting the question to be asked: Is our planet capable of enduring such a burden? Furthermore, the use of any kind of WMD is likely to make life impossible on the plant, at least the life of humans and most higher animals. (The explosion of even 10-20% of the nuclear weapons accumulated in the 1980s could have caused a nuclear winter).

This awareness and recent studies performed by experts in globalistics, futurology and synergy have led to numerous discussions of possible futures of our civilization producing unoptimistic conclusions about future catastrophes.

Current Situation

Here it is appropriate to recall that back in 1945, after the victory in World War II, the colonial powers did not have the slightest thought that colonialism was bad. It was only in the Declaration of 1960, after a considerable number of colonies had won their independence, that the UN acknowledged "basic human right, dignity and value of the human personality, equal rights of men and women and equality of the big and small nations" and solemnly declared that colonialism in all its forms and manifestations must be immediately and irrevocably eliminated.

To be honest, we must admit that after having won their independence most of the former colonies lagged behind their former European masters and are currently among the developing countries in need of radical reforms. In addition to economic and political problems, former colonies often suffer from civil wars and military conflicts with their neighbors. Nevertheless, the world entered 21^st century without empires [2] and, consequently, with a great number of new independent states.

Humanity is dynamic: Changes continue to occur, to a certain extent under the influence of scientific and technological progress. Developed (and to a lesser extent, developing) countries demonstrate increases in labor productivity, infrastructural improvements, better opportunities for people to choose profession, domicile and even country of residence. These positive developments strongly contrast poverty (all the more so, hunger) in the dozens of badly governed backward countries ruled by dictators using brutal force to hold their people in obedience and poverty. Such regimes are infested with corruption, have no fair or effective judicial system and no independent mass media. Quite often such rulers manage to leave their positions in power to offspring thus ensuring succession of power and avoiding criticism or prosecution.

Dictator-ruled countries periodically experience outbursts of popular discontent in the form of either velvet revolutions or armed uprisings. Nowadays, with the spread of the Internet, revolutions have become much easier as the rulers no longer enjoy information monopoly – a necessary condition for the existence of unpopular regimes. Revolution may result in a shift to a more democratic rule, however, quite often it all boils down to a new dictator coming to power with very little changes for the people. As was already mentioned above, despotic regimes were prevalent from the time of early states and until recently; currently, monarchies exist only in a few dozens of countries out of the total of more than 200. However, there are dozens more countries where democracy is only formally declared while in effect they are ruled by dictators who are immune to control or criticism.

Most recent events only serve to confirm what was said above. In 2011, outbursts of public discontent occurred in several countries of North Africa and Eastern Arabic countries, including in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria. And the conflicts which broke out earlier in other countries of Africa show no signs of abating. Many of the recent uprisings were triggered by events in Tunisia and Egypt, the fall of the presidents and the upcoming trial of Hosni Mubarak. The question to ask is who is going to come to power in these countries and to what extent such new rulers would be progressive and democratic. There is a danger that radical Islamic groups, like al-Qaeda, may gain the upper hand. How the developed world should reach on these developments? Should we promote such revolutions or should we control them? If fact, there are no recipes here. The reactions and activities of the world leading powers will definitely affect the outcome of these uprisings. The problem is that positions of the world leading countries are often influenced by opposite considerations: on the one hand they want to support democratic changes, while on the other hand they do not want to lose lucrative weapon markets and long-standing crude suppliers. Attempts at finding optimal solutions to these problems are made at G8 meetings (Davos meeting of 2011) which can be regarded as kind of world government.

The need for reforming and developing backward countries is one of the most pressing problems of today. Mankind is facing other problems too which are not less important, for example, the opposition between the developed countries. This opposition is fueled by competition in various spheres, struggle for influence in the world, old grudges, struggle for control over natural resources (for example, the Arctic continental shelf, fishing areas, etc.), economic and financial disputes, such as currency exchange rates, export/import regulation, customs duties, etc.

Naturally, contradictions also exist between the prosperous and backward countries over such issues as economic assistance, debts (mostly those continuing from colonial era), immigration barriers and the status of those who have managed to immigrate and are trying to become integrated into new society.

Seemingly, the progress in many important spheres, primarily in material production, should have helped improve relations between the countries and nations, make them more peaceful, bring livings standards up to a certain acceptable level (equality can only be dreamed of), stimulate unification of states and eliminate conflicts and clashes.

Alas, real life is different. Here it is appropriate to quote Pitirim Sorokin: "The wave of death that engulfed the world in the 20^th century, which was believed to be a civilized age, had pointedly contradicted all those 'sweet' theories about progressive evolution of men from ignorance to enlightenment and wisdom, from animal-like behavior to nobility of character, from barbarianism to civilization … from tyranny to freedom, from poverty and diseases to unlimited prosperity and health, from the worst of all animals to semi-god," – quoted from The Long Way, 1991.

Therefore, most of the time in the 20^th century, instead of stimulating progress in backward countries, helping the poor and equalizing the quality of life, mankind was rather involved in various conflicts as well as in the development and production of new kinds or weapons and supplying them to the weapon markets. Around one trillion dollars are spent on weapons in the world every year, mostly by the mightiest countries – the United States, Russia, China. This is dozens of times the amount promised (but usually not actually provided) for assistance to the developing countries. With existing WMDs and those to be developed in the near future conflicts may become even more dangerous. According to most of the experts, a war involving the use of WMDs is likely to cause devastation of the planet and extinction of the human race.

Humanity is facing a number of other threats, such as depletion of resources, pollution of the atmosphere, land and water bodies, which also tend to aggravate.

For more details see the author's book "Civilization in the 21st Century" – http://www.savefuture.net/files/2009edition-en.pdf

Call to Action

Numerous pacifist organizations come to very similar conclusions when analyzing present situation of our civilization. Such conclusions have been published many times by over 60 groups and organizations and hundreds of reputable authors ( http://appeal.savefuture.net/; http://wpf.unesco-tlee.org/eng/intrabr.htm ). Unfortunately, there is no coordination of efforts or joining of forces and there is no systematic activity to combat the imminent threats hence the probability of pessimistic scenarios is becoming higher.

Like in the number of his previous publications, the author is hereby calling to join and coordinate efforts with the aim to resolve the most pertinent problem of the modern day – preservation of our civilization and preservation of life on the planet. It may seem that this work should and could be done by the UN and its General Assembly. Most meaningful steps made in this direction were the Sustainable Development Forum in Rio-de-Janeiro in 1992 and the "Rio+10" forum held in 2002 in Johannesburg. The Rio-de-Janeiro conference of 1992 was followed by the adoption of the document called The 21st Century Agenda which outlined measures to counteract the dangers noted above. Similar proposals are contained in the Millennium Declaration which was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2000. "We have approached a decisive turning point in history… New and various threats have taken shape. We have to take another look at the mechanism of international relations: whether or not it is up to these new challenges? And what changes should be introduced if it is not?," former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said. Russian Academician Nikita Moiseyev made the following assessment of the conference. "[The forum in Rio] has failed to rise to a sufficiently high level. We ought to reach the level of society where people think and act together." The Rio forums inspired many countries into the adoption of their own programs of combating the dangers facing humanity, but it had not been much time before these efforts had mostly faded away.

Now we should not miss the opportunities offered by the upcoming "Rio+20" forum to be held in 2012. It is important to come to the forum well prepared and to launch coordinated activities aimed at ensuring sustainable development of our civilization.

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[1] Plans existed to seize Constantinople, spread influence on the contiguous areas, dominate the Black Sea straits, access Palestine, etc. In the late 1870s, Russia was about to rush into implementing these plans, but was stopped by the opposition from certain European powers. According to Russian poet and diplomat Fyodor Tyutchev, Russia's plans in that time included "opening a new era for Europe, uniting the Eastern and Western churches, with an Orthodox emperor in Constantinople and an Orthodox Pope in Rome who are the subordinates of the Russian Emperor."

[2] If we do not consider the vast and multinational India and China to be modern-day empires.